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How the US can cut its emissions in half by 2030

The US has pledged to cut its emissions by around 50% by 2030. Image: Unsplash/Maxim Tolchinskiy

John Bistline

Program Manager, Energy Systems and Climate Analysis Group, Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI)

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Comparison across models of US greenhouse gas emissions reductions in 2030 relative to 2005 levels. Historical emissions from US EPA’s Inventory of US Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks.
Roughly 70-90% of emissions reductions by 2030 come from the power and transport sectors. Image: Bistline, et al. (2022)
Cross-model comparison of average annual capacity additions and retirements by technology through 2030.
The rate of coal power capacity closures is consistent across all models, exceeding 20GW per year to 2030. Image: Adapted from Bistline, et al. (2022)
Comparison of electric vehicle sales share of US light-duty cars and trucks in 2030 across models. Historical values are from the International Energy Agency’s Global EV Outlook 2021.
Current policies would lead to EV adoption reaching around 35% by 2030 - 30% short of the average adoption rate needed to reach the 2030 climate goal. Image: Adapted from Bistline, et al. (2022)

Cross-model comparison of 2030 US GHG emissions by sector in a reference (“current policies”) scenario.
Existing climate policies are expected to lower energy-related CO2 by only 6-28% from 2005 levels by 2030. Image: Adapted from Bistline, et al. (2022)
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United StatesClimate ChangeEnergy Transition

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