Emerging Technologies

AI may soon predict financial crises before they take root

Finance and stock market data graph. Research suggests that AI may soon be critical tool in the arsenal of financial risk managers.

Research suggests that AI may soon be critical tool in the arsenal of financial risk managers. Image: Getty Images/iStockphoto

Sebastian Petric
Head of FX Strategy, LGT Bank (Schweiz) AG., Switzerland
Share:
Our Impact
What's the World Economic Forum doing to accelerate action on Emerging Technologies?
A hand holding a looking glass by a lake
Crowdsource Innovation
Get involved with our crowdsourced digital platform to deliver impact at scale
  • The finance sector — in particular risk management and crisis prediction — is set to be disrupted by artificial intelligence.
  • Research suggests that machine learning algorithms can quickly identify the patterns that suggest a crisis in on the horizon, giving time to correct.
  • To ensure this technology is deployed responsibly, robust governance must accompany the rapid development of AI.

As artificial intelligence (AI) evolves, so does its potential to transform various sectors — and at the cutting edge of this is the finance sector.

When brought to bear in the finance sector, this emerging technology holds great promise for improving financial crisis forecasts, enhancing risk management and economic resilience. Crucially, there is a growing body of evidence showing that AI's ability to analyze large datasets and identify financial patterns can pre-empt crises, providing early warnings and enabling proactive interventions.

However, AI's evolving potential to transform finance necessitates a dual approach: technology and robust governance.

Have you read?

How AI can revolutionize risk in finance

AI, by examining vast datasets, may have the power to identify the patterns that predict financial crises before they happen and take pre-emptive action to mitigate or even avert them. This is happening because innovations in machine learning have significantly improved AI's capability to dissect financial data. Today, advanced algorithms can identify complex correlations and anomalies that traditional methods might miss, providing early warnings of economic and financial distress. By leveraging predictive algorithms, AI tools offer vital insights that support proactive measures to maintain financial stability. For example, AI-driven analytics can alert stakeholders to emerging risks, allowing for timely interventions that protect economies from severe downturns.

To maximize AI's potential in reducing volatility in financial markets, a dual approach is necessary: addressing both technological advancements and robust governance. This comprehensive strategy not only enhances financial forecasting but also ensures robust deployment, fostering economic resilience and societal progress.

Research by the University of Liechtenstein highlights AI's potential in predicting financial crises. By redefining what constitutes a financial crisis and using machine learning algorithms, the aim is to improve the accuracy of crisis forecasts. And the initial findings are promising. Research suggests that AI can significantly enhance the detection and prediction of financial downturns. This data-driven approach enables us to refine financial strategies, improve risk management and ultimately strengthen economic resilience.

This research shows the clear benefits of accurately identifying and predicting financial crises. The University of Liechtenstein’s researchers have developed a method to detect and forecast banking crises using data. Unlike other methods, this one works well under different conditions and performs better than traditional investment strategies. Key indicators all confirm that these crisis forecasts are more effective in guiding market decisions.

Global cooperation for good AI governance

As AI reshapes financial forecasting and crisis management, robust governance frameworks become crucial. The World Economic Forum’s AI Governance Alliance stresses the need for transparent and inclusive governance to ensure AI's robust deployment. Effective governance frameworks are essential to safeguard economic interests and minimize potential harms associated with AI applications in finance.

Governance frameworks must prioritize considerations of robustness, ensuring AI systems are developed and deployed responsibly. This involves implementing standards that emphasize accountability, transparency and public trust. By adhering to these principles, we can ensure that AI technologies contribute positively to global financial stability goals.

Inclusive governance requires the participation of diverse stakeholders in AI's decision-making processes. This approach ensures that AI systems are not only effective but see points from different perspectives. By incorporating insights from various disciplines, we can guide AI development to address the unique complexities of finance effectively. Inclusive governance helps align AI applications with core human values, promoting fairness and reducing biases in financial forecasting.

Initiatives like the AI Governance Alliance facilitate collaborative efforts to enhance AI's contribution to economic resilience and societal progress. By fostering cooperation among stakeholders, these initiatives promote the development of AI technologies in ways that align with broader societal values and needs. This collective effort ensures that the benefits of AI are widely distributed, contributing to a more stable and equitable financial system.

As AI reshapes financial forecasting and crisis management, adhering to robust governance frameworks is crucial. Through initiatives like the World Economic Forum’s AI Governance Alliance, collaborative efforts can enhance AI's contribution to economic resilience and societal progress. The alliance facilitates the development of AI technologies in a manner that aligns with global financial stability goals, emphasising accountability, transparency and public trust.

The AI Governance Alliance underscores the crucial need for transparent and inclusive governance, especially within the financial sector. It advocates for frameworks that ensure AI is developed and deployed ethically, safeguarding economic interests and minimizing potential harms. In finance, where AI's impact is particularly significant, such governance is vital.

By pursuing technological advancements and robust governance concurrently, we can harness AI's full potential to safeguard and stabilize financial markets and ensure its benefits are widely distributed across society. This dual approach not only prepares us better for potential financial instabilities but also aligns AI development with broader societal values and needs.

Loading...
Don't miss any update on this topic

Create a free account and access your personalized content collection with our latest publications and analyses.

Sign up for free

License and Republishing

World Economic Forum articles may be republished in accordance with the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International Public License, and in accordance with our Terms of Use.

The views expressed in this article are those of the author alone and not the World Economic Forum.

Share:
World Economic Forum logo
Global Agenda

The Agenda Weekly

A weekly update of the most important issues driving the global agenda

Subscribe today

You can unsubscribe at any time using the link in our emails. For more details, review our privacy policy.

What is spatial computing, and how will mixed reality blur the lines between the physical and the digital realms?

Andrea Willige

June 20, 2024

About Us

Events

Media

Partners & Members

  • Join Us

Language Editions

Privacy Policy & Terms of Service

© 2024 World Economic Forum