Climate Action

How 6 heavy-emitting industries are working to decarbonize

Trucks parked next to a field.

Trucking accounts for around 4% of global GHG emissions, with demand for road freight set to double by 2050. Image: Unsplash/Marcin Jozwiak

Kate Whiting
Senior Writer, Forum Stories
  • The First Movers Coalition was launched at COP26 to bring together companies to stimulate demand for low-carbon technologies to decarbonize heavy industry and transport.
  • More than two years later, 99 companies have made 125 commitments across seven sectors, from steel to aviation and carbon removal.
  • Here’s what you need to know about the achievements of the First Movers Coalition to date.

A decade ago, before the Paris Agreement was negotiated at COP21, high-emitting sectors across heavy industry and heavy-duty transportation were considered almost impossible to decarbonize or ‘too-hard-to-abate’.

Under the Paris Agreement, we need to reach net-zero CO2 emissions by 2050 to limit global warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.

Aviation, shipping, trucking, aluminium, cement and concrete, and steel account for around 25% of global greenhouse gas emissions (GHG), which could rise to 50% by 2050 if left unchecked.

But today, these six sectors are taking crucial steps to decarbonize through the work of the 99 members of the First Movers Coalition (FMC) and its 13 government partners.

Discover

What’s the World Economic Forum doing about climate change?

Simply put, the First Movers Coalition is a collection of leading global companies who are using their purchasing power to send a strong demand signal for near-zero-emission products and services.

By committing to purchase significant quantities of these products and services made with breakthrough low-carbon technologies by 2030, FMC members ‘signal’ to producers to ramp up investment and production, ultimately spurring the market and accelerating their deployment.

Launched by the US government and the World Economic Forum at COP26 in 2021, membership has since tripled.

In addition to the carbon-intense sectors, the FMC is working to stimulate demand for carbon dioxide removal technologies.

In total, 125 commitments have been made across those seven sectors, which by 2030, will represent around $16 billion in aggregated demand and an estimated 31 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent in annual reductions.

The challenges of decarbonizing heavy industry

In the coalition’s latest status report, Annie Hills, Senior Advisor, United States Special Presidential Envoy for Climate, and Rob van Riet, the Forum’s Programme Head, Climate Action and First Movers Coalition, sum up the complexity and urgency of the challenge and why the continued work of the coalition is so important.

“We are approaching the halfway point in this ‘decade of action’ and the window of opportunity to demonstrate and commercialize these innovative technologies is rapidly closing, given the urgency to scale-up them up sufficiently to enable net-zero emissions by 2050.

“We are also aiming at a moving target, as global demand across these economically essential sectors is projected to climb steeply in the coming decades.”

By 2050, it’s estimated there will be an 80% increase in demand for aluminium, 40% for cement and concrete, and 30% for steel. Demand for sea freight is predicted to triple and that for trucking to double in the same timeframe.

Another challenge in decarbonizing these sectors is that around 50% of the reductions needed to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050 need to come from technologies not yet commercially available at scale.

But in the two and a half years since the FMC launched, the six high-emitting sectors have taken strides on the path to decarbonization. Here are some of the stand-out achievements to date…

Global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, by FMC sector
How the six high-emitting sectors account for greenhouse gas emissions. Image: World Economic Forum

Steel: Forging a greener future

The steel industry accounts for around 8% of global GHG emissions, with demand forecast to increase 30% by 2050. The FMC has secured commitments from 27 companies that at least 10% of steel purchased by 2030 will be near-zero emissions.

  • In January 2024, FMC’s Near-Zero Steel Challenge, which aimed to surface new demand and supply, attracted over 100 submissions from 21 buyers, 17 suppliers and 71 enabling technology innovators.
  • Steel producer SSAB, mining company LKAB and power producer Vattenfall have collaborated to create HYBRIT (Hydrogen Breakthrough Ironmaking Technology), which uses zero-carbon electricity and hydrogen to eliminate emissions from steelmaking. In September 2022, HYBRIT announced a new hydrogen storage facility that could reduce the variable cost of hydrogen production by 25-40% – Scania announced it will manufacture its heavy-duty trucks almost entirely from hydrogen-based steel by 2030 – in June 2023, Scania placed its first order with Sweden-based H2 Green Steel.
  • ZF Group and Marcegaglia have signed offtake agreements with H2 Green Steel for future near-zero steel supply worth €1.5 billion and €1.79 billion respectively.
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Concrete and cement: Building a sustainable future

Together, concrete and steel account for around 6% of global GHG emissions, with demand projected to increase 40% by 2050. Decarbonization options include clinker substitution using non-fossil-based supplementary cementitious materials (SCMs). This newest sector of the FMC has secured commitments from seven companies to ensure at least 10% of cement/concrete purchased is near-zero emissions by 2030.

  • Holcim aims to offer 8 Mt of net-zero cement per annum by 2030, enabled by carbon capture, utilization and storage projects.
  • Heidelberg Materials is collaborating with Norway’s government to create the first full-scale carbon capture and storage facility in the cement industry, due to open end-2024 with an initial capacity of 400,000 tCO2 per year.
  • In January 2024, the First Movers Coalition Cement and Concrete Procurement Guide was published.

Aluminium: Lightening the environmental load

Aluminium accounts for around 2% of global GHG emissions, with demand forecast to increase by 40% by 2030. The FMC has secured support from 19 companies for two commitments: first to ensure at least 10% of primary aluminium procured will be low-carbon; the second commitment is optional, to ensure at least 50% of aluminium procured is “secondary” (manufactured from scrap).

  • Ball Corporation announced the launch of its first low-carbon aluminium cup, made of 90% recycled aluminium supplied by Novelis and 10% FMC-compliant low-carbon primary aluminium, supplied by Alcoa from the Elysis process.
  • Novelis has invested $2.5 billion in a new recycling and rolling plant in Alabama.

Aviation: Sustainability in the skies

Aviation accounts for around 3% of global GHG emissions, but this share could quadruple by 2050 without deep decarbonization. The FMC has secured commitments from 28 companies to replace at least 5% of conventional jet fuel demand with sustainable aviation fuels (SAF) that reduce life-cycle emissions by at least 85%. While SAF offer the sector one of the quickest pathways to decarbonization, the volumes produced represent less than 1% of total jet fuel demand.

  • The Sustainable Aviation Challenge attracted 125 submissions from innovators looking to decarbonize aviation, of which 16 were selected to join the new First Suppliers Hub.
  • Bank of America and Delta, plus Ecolab, have developed the world’s first large-scale SAF hub in Minnesota, where Delta aims to use SAF for more than 10% of its fuel by 2027, rising to 50% by 2035.
  • In June 2023, the Sustainable Aviation Fuels: Offtake Manual was published; a SAF85 Technical Brief will follow in summer 2024.

Shipping: Charting a course for clean seas

Shipping accounts for more than 2% of global GHG emissions, with maritime trade volumes set to triple by 2050. The FMC has secured commitments from 17 companies to power deep-sea shipping with zero-emission fuels (ZEF). Carriers must use at least 5% ZEF by 2030, while cargo owners must use ZEF-powered ships for 10% of goods by 2030, rising to 100% by 2040.

  • Maersk has launched the world’s first two dual-fuel methanol-enabled container vessels, including the 350-metre, 16,592 TEU “Ane Mærsk”, with 25 such vessels delivered or on order.
  • In December 2023, Fuelling the Future of Shipping: Key Barriers to Scaling Zero-Emission Fuel Supply was published, which identifies the top 10 barriers limiting ZEF projects from getting past final investment decision phase.

Trucking: Driving towards zero emissions

Trucking accounts for around 4% of global GHG emissions, with demand for road freight set to double by 2050. The FMC has secured commitments from 16 companies to ensure at least 30% of heavy-duty and 100% of medium-duty trucks they buy or use will be zero-emission by 2030. In-scope technologies include battery-electric vehicles and hydrogen fuel-cell electric vehicles.

  • Holcim has finalized orders with Volvo Group and Mercedes-Benz Trucks for 2,000 battery-electric heavy-duty trucks to be deployed by 2030 – the world’s largest such commercial order.
  • In January 2024, the Procurement Playbook Toward Zero Emissions Logistics Services was launched, which offers two procurement strategies, transactional and transformational, each tailored for different scenarios.

The 7th FMC sector: carbon dioxide removal (CDR)

Although not a heavy-emitting sector, carbon dioxide removal will be critical for global decarbonization efforts across all industrial sectors. Reaching the Paris climate goals will require 10 billion tonnes of CO2 removal every year by 2050.

The majority of this will have to come from durable CDR – solutions that can demonstrably store captured carbon for 1,000+ years. However, advance purchases stand at just 11 Mt today.

While durable/engineered CDR scores highly on integrity, its scalability is hampered by high costs, lack of mature measurement, reporting and verification (MRV), and low support from policymakers.

Eleven companies have joined FMC’s CDR commitment to contract for 50,000+ tonnes or $25 million of durable and scalable CO2 removal by 2030.

Here are some of the main achievements within in the FMC sector to date...

  • Microsoft has signed an agreement with Ørsted to purchase 2.7 Mt of durable CDR credits over 11 years, one of the largest ever carbon removal offtake deals. The agreement was part of the Ørsted Kalundborg CO2 Hub, where ~430,000 tonnes of biogenic CO2 per year will be captured and stored from 2026.
  • In May 2024, Microsoft purchased an additional 1.0 million tonnes of carbon removal over 10 years from the same hub. The company, whose target is 5.5 Mt of CDR per year by 2030, accounts for ~64% of all engineered CDR purchases made to date.
  • In January 2024 Carbon Dioxide Removal: Best-Practice Guidelines was published, which shares lessons from eight FMC members and seeks to lower entry barriers to the nascent removals market.
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