Gauging the global economic future: can productivity revive by 2030?
For countries, productivity drives long-term growth and improves living standards. Image: REUTERS/Priyanshu Singh
- The World Economic Forum is launching a Global Economic Futures series in collaboration with Accenture, to help decision-makers understand and anticipate change.
- The first edition explores four scenarios for the future of productivity, looking specifically at the interaction of technology and talent development.
- It features a data-driven assessment of industry exposure, and presents a set of actionable strategies for businesses and governments.
In any economy, it’s always about producing more with less – owing to new ideas, technology, and people able to make creative use of both. Think electricity circa the late 19th century, or computers in the 20th.
For countries, productivity drives long-term growth and improves living standards. For companies it’s a similar dynamic: more productive businesses enjoy a competitive edge, and higher profitability.
Anaemic productivity can be a serious stumbling block. The IMF estimates that more than half of the deceleration in worldwide growth in the first decades of this century resulted from lacklustre productivity. Meanwhile nearly 40% of large companies have recorded a productivity decline in recent years.
Getting productivity back on track is going to be necessary to revive the world’s economic fortunes. There is little consensus on its likely trajectory in the coming years, but trends related to technology, talent, demographics, the business environment, and geopolitics are all likely to shape it, according to a new white paper, Global Economic Futures: Productivity in 2030, published by the World Economic Forum in collaboration with Accenture.
Four scenarios for 2030
The white paper zeroes in on two underlying drivers – technology, and “human capital” (a catch-all for the skills, education, and savvy of a workforce) – to formulate four scenarios for productivity that could unfold over the next five years.

The first scenario is Productivity Leap, where a virtuous circle of widespread, disruptive innovation and rapid human capital development spurs significant and broad-based productivity gains, and a marked improvement in living standards.
Another possible scenario is Automation Overload, where technological advancements outpace human capital development – leading to a “winner-takes-all” dynamic, increased concentration of wealth and power, and widening productivity gaps between leading and lagging firms, sectors, and regions.
In a third scenario, Human Advantage, human capital development outpaces technology, leading to economic activity becoming more centred on people. That may be an appealing prospect, but it would lead to slow and uneven productivity growth – with fewer technological breakthroughs to drive things forward, and greater reliance on people who can find creative new ways of using existing technologies.
In the last scenario, Productivity Drought, technological innovation and human capital development slow simultaneously. Societies would struggle to avoid prosperity losses and declining living standards.
These four scenarios are not predictions of where the world will be in 2030. The idea here is to help decision-makers grapple with how rapidly the world is changing, and how much uncertainty there is about the ways economies and societies are likely to evolve.
Mapping industry implications
Each of these futures has the potential to reshape the business landscape. Some industries will fare better than others, according to the white paper – which lays out the impacts on output and profitability under all of them in a heat map.

The IT and digital communications sector is well positioned for growth across most scenarios. It is, after all, both an enabler and beneficiary of innovation. Things get far more challenging in the Productivity Drought scenario, due to the sector’s exposure to geopolitical and regulatory volatility, and its heavy reliance on dynamic and highly skilled talent.
For financial, professional, and real estate services, the position is mixed. On the one hand, a high capacity to absorb innovation and attract talent will help the sector leverage growth opportunities. On the other hand, this reliance can be a source of vulnerability. Strong tailwinds in the Productivity Leap scenario – banking, for example, could see a 30% gain in productivity through AI adoption in just a few years – weaken for Automation Overload and Human Advantage.
The manufacturing industry is likely to see a growing chasm between more advanced sectors (automotive, aerospace, or pharmaceuticals) and others. The more innovation-intensive manufacturers are particularly exposed to supply chain pressures, and the intensification of winner-takes-all dynamics. Another big risk: with only 45% of the workforce currently engaged in “upskilling,” the sector might grapple with talent gaps. Many firms may also face risks if automation leads to restructuring of global supply chains.
It’s an uneven road ahead for the energy and materials industry. Higher productivity could boost innovation and enable a longer-term scaling up of renewable energy; but in the shorter term, it is likely to drive up both renewable and non-renewable energy demand. Firms in the sector might also face growing talent shortages. The challenge is particularly acute for energy technology firms, with eight in 10 highlighting skills gaps as a critical obstacle in the coming years.
The education sector plays a critical role in meeting evolving skills demand in both technology- and talent-driven scenarios. The biggest opportunities may be in developing markets lacking educational infrastructure, and leveraging new technologies more broadly – with AI adoption alone projected to add $200 billion in value by 2025.
Reviving productivity, the right way
Reviving productivity growth requires tackling structural barriers like uneven access to capital and talent, infrastructure gaps, and limited diffusion of innovation. Global economic fragmentation also poses a challenge.
The report offers a series of strategic recommendations to help businesses and governments mitigate risks, while harnessing the productivity potential of technology and talent trends. They include: promoting synergies between technology and human capital development; strengthening anticipatory and data-driven decision-making; accelerating the adoption and diffusion of emerging technologies; future-proofing education and training systems; and strengthening resilience to geopolitical disruption.
The world is changing; the need for dynamic productivity will remain constant.
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