How we can defeat malaria by 2030

Across Asia Pacific, a startling increase in malaria has appeared to arise.

From 8 million estimated cases in 2021, there were approximately 10.4 million in 2023, according to the World Health Organization’s World Malaria Report 2024.

While some of the uptick can be attributed to improved surveillance and case detection, the recent surge is more likely due to underlying factors, including conflict and political and social instability, including in Myanmar and Afghanistan. These conditions further weaken health systems where there is endemic malaria e.g. Papua New Guinea and Solomon Islands, as well as drug and insecticide resistance.

While the relationship between malaria transmission and climate change remains complex, changes in temperature, natural disasters and erratic rainfall patterns are inextricably linked to mosquito behaviour and their habitats, making public health responses less predictable.

Amidst these challenges, reaching the global Sustainable Development Goal of eliminating malaria by 2030 may seem more elusive than ever. In Indonesia, 90% of estimated cases are concentrated in 14 districts of Papua Province, while Pakistan’s estimated cases jumped from 2.7 million in 2022 to 4.3 million in 2023.

Yet, much of the Asia Pacific region stands at the precipice of beating malaria: China and Sri Lanka are malaria-free, while countries such as Cambodia, Laos, Vietnam, Timor-Leste, Malaysia and Bhutan are on the cusp of achieving elimination.

Asia Pacific must double down with a renewed commitment to end malaria where we can, while channelling knowledge and resources to where they are needed most.

The current uncertainty surrounding international funding by the US government as an anchor donor in global health is profound. In 2024, the United States stood as the largest contributor to global health, with a significant allocation of approximately $12.3 billion.

Of this, $1.65 billion was specifically invested in fighting AIDS, tuberculosis and malaria through The Global Fund – a primary source of funding for malaria activities globally.

In Asia Pacific, the abrupt cessation of aid has compelled countries in the Greater Mekong Region to urgently devise contingency plans to mitigate the imminent disruption of supplies, severely impacting testing and treatment services.

This sudden shift threatens the continuity of malaria surveillance, the availability of essential medicines and ultimately, the goal of malaria elimination in the region.

However, this challenge presents an opportunity for countries in the Asia Pacific to rise to the occasion and make a significant impact by spearheading efforts to drive new collaboration and innovation in the fight against malaria.

Globally, the funding gap for combating malaria stands at $4.3 billion, with Asia Pacific facing a shortage of $478.1 million. The Global Fund receives contributions from many sources, including donor countries, the private sector, foundations and innovative financing initiatives.

Since 2020, Asia Pacific nations, including Australia, China, India, Indonesia, Japan, New Zealand, the Republic of Korea, Singapore and Thailand, have pledged funds to support The Global Fund.

In the face of the current shifts in global health resources, these nations must sustain, if not elevate, their contributions for the upcoming funding cycle to ensure the past decades’ investments are not lost – our gains as a region on the march towards elimination are precious.

Ensuring the long-term sustainability of malaria programmes means increasing domestic funding in malaria-affected countries. Governments and the private sector should remember that financial commitments to malaria elimination yield a powerful return on investment.

Past studies have indicated that malaria elimination yields a 6:1 return on investment and could generate up to $90 billion in economic benefits from reduced malaria-related healthcare system burdens and a healthier population, all while saving lives.

While there has been formidable progress in the past two decades, malaria resurgence can be unforgiving if not eliminated. India’s experience in the late 1960s and 1970s is a cautionary reminder. After reducing malaria cases to approximately 100,000 annually in the early 1960s, the country witnessed a dramatic resurgence, with reported cases escalating to 6.45 million by 1976.

The fight against malaria is at a critical juncture. With thoughtful investments, strategic planning and unwavering commitment, we can turn the tide and make the region largely malaria-free by 2030. In a closely connected world, we are only as safe as the most vulnerable.

World Malaria Day in 2025 must be a palpable reminder of continued inequality: some are safe from malaria, while others remain vulnerable to it by virtue of where they live. The basic right to health, prosperity and life is fundamental.

While we bear witness to greater global polarization, we must acknowledge the reality that nature does not abide by such fragmentation. The mosquito vector and malaria parasite will only be defeated through global solidarity and collective prioritization of equitable health solutions.

As much as it may not seem apparent during such chaotic times, humankind does have a remarkable capacity for “kindness” through public health – global declines in premature mortality and the campaigns to end smallpox or eradicate polio are but a few examples. Ending malaria is one more way to demonstrate our collective humanity.

The Asia Pacific Leaders of Malaria Alliance (APLMA) defines the Asia Pacific region as: Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, Cambodia, China, Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, India, Indonesia, Lao PDR, Malaysia, Myanmar, Nepal, Pakistan, Papua New Guinea, Philippines, Republic of Korea, Solomon Islands, Sri Lanka, Thailand, Timor-Leste, Vanuatu, Viet Nam.