The overlooked global risk of the AI precariat

When we are young, we dream about what we want to be when we grow up. But in the age of AI, many of those dreams are being rewritten – or erased. Even for those already building careers or firmly established in their field, AI is quietly changing the rules. The global conversation has focused mostly on productivity gains, competitive advantage and regulation; some celebrate AI’s potential to create new jobs. But what about those who fall through the cracks? The psychological toll of sudden AI-driven unemployment remains largely unaddressed. Who will we be without our work?

It’s time to focus on the global occupational identity crisis that is looming – the loss of purpose, structure and social belonging that comes when work disappears. It will accelerate the rise of what economist Guy Standing in 2011 coined the precariat – a class defined by insecurity, exclusion and anxiety. Today’s version of this, what I term the AI precariat, will not just be unemployed or underemployed. As income disappears, identity and meaning may vanish too, with real consequences for mental health.

In my work over the last two years, I have highlighted this AI-driven occupational identity crisis as a blind spot in global risk planning. Most recently, at the retreat of the World Economic Forum’s Global Foresight Network, of which I am a member, this issue sparked urgent discussion. Bottom line: the identity crisis is real and underestimated.

The predictions about unemployment rates and timing vary. Some tech leaders, like Nvidia’s Jensen Huang, argue that AI will create more and 'superior' jobs. Others are less optimistic. Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei has warned that AI could eliminate half of all entry-level white-collar jobs within one to four years. The IMF warns that 60% of jobs are already exposed to AI in advanced economies and 40% in emerging markets. The Inter-American Development Bank’s index of occupational exposure finds that 980 million jobs worldwide face high disruption risk in the next year. And, the World Economic Forum’s 2025 Jobs of the Future Report reveals that due to AI, 41% of employers intend to reduce their workforce by 2030.

These numbers capture the economic disruption. But we rarely connect the dots to what happens next – when millions lose not just income, but the anchor that work provides. What happens when our education or years of work experience don’t matter as much anymore? Many may face a grim choice: scramble to 'learn AI' to stay relevant – or drift into a new class, uncertain where they can fit in the AI economy. As some professions become obsolete, many will feel left behind. This could lead to recurrent anger against governments.

This disruption won’t arrive all at once – it will come in waves:

Wave 1: Traditional automation continues to displace routine, manual and service jobs.

Wave 2: Generative AI is already reshaping content creation, routine cognitive tasks and repetitive knowledge work in sectors like marketing, law, finance and tech.

Wave 3: Agentic AI is already executing multi-step tasks without human input, impacting jobs in human resources, market research and IT support. It may eventually replace mid-level and managerial roles, restructuring entire organizations.

Wave 4: Artificial general intelligence (AGI) could perform most cognitive tasks by 2030, rendering entire professions obsolete. Artificial super intelligence (ASI) may follow, surpassing human capabilities.

Each wave will displace another segment of the global working population. The challenge isn’t just how to re-employ people, but how to help them adapt to a future where their previous skills or identities may no longer be relevant. In a way, we’ve seen this before. From post-coal Britain to post-industrial American towns, when livelihoods vanished, for many mental health deteriorated, addiction rose and political extremism found fertile ground. The AI wave could replicate those dynamics – but on a global scale and at a much faster pace. It could even lead to a tech-lash.

Are we prepared? Many governments and companies have invested heavily in AI strategies focused on innovation, education and upskilling – and that matters. But few are preparing for the psychological demands ahead. Who will address the unique challenges of the AI precariat: the grief of losing a profession, the potential alienation from society and the possible breakdown of civic trust?

A new human-centred social contract in the age of AI must value dignity and identity as much as employment. That means:

• Universal access to mental health care

• Reimagined social safety nets

• Concrete efforts with basic income, civic stipends or job guarantees

• Lifelong learning paired with lifelong belonging

This also means acknowledging occupational identity loss as a real global risk – not a side effect. It must be integrated into workforce transition plans, not left to families and individuals to manage alone.

Two ideas we might pilot:

• Precariat labs: Cross-sector hubs where governments, companies and civil society test interventions for those at risk of AI-driven job loss. These would integrate mental health care, retraining and community-building to preserve livelihoods and identity.

• Universal basic income focused on purpose: An evolution of universal basic income designed to restore purpose, belonging and meaning outside formal employment – through civic projects, creative pursuits or skill-sharing networks.

Perhaps, we also need a new global metric: an AI Anxiety Index to track how occupational displacement affects mental well-being across societies – and to help shape timely interventions.

The AI precariat may not make headlines like billion-dollar chip deals or breakthrough models. But it will shape the political, social, economic and security terrain of the next decade. If we want AI to be remembered as a tool for human flourishing, rather than mass alienation, we must start planning, not just for the jobs AI will create – but for the dreams it might erase.