The future of space governance: How space diplomacy secures critical orbital infrastructure

In an era defined by geopolitical tension, economic volatility and accelerating climate risk, it may seem counterintuitive that outer space, a domain of scientific exploration and symbolic competition, is emerging as an urgent arena for global cooperation.

Yet our stability on Earth today increasingly depends on orbital infrastructure, the future of which is determined by diplomacy as much as engineering.

Space underpins nearly every critical system we rely on. Navigation, financial transactions, communications, weather forecasting, food security, disaster response and climate modelling all depend on satellites operating in an ever more crowded, commercial and strategically sensitive environment.

Five years ago, fewer than 3,000 satellites were active in orbit. Today, more than 10,000 are in operation, largely driven by commercial constellations in low Earth orbit. Over 90 countries now possess space capabilities and commercial operators conduct most global launches.

By the early 2030s, tens of thousands of additional satellites are expected to be deployed, exceeding the total launched during the first six decades of the space age.

This expansion also exposes a critical vulnerability: the systems governing space activity have not kept pace with its speed, scale or complexity.

The international space governance framework still relies heavily on treaties and norms from the 1960s and 1970s, predating the emergence of commercial mega-constellations, dual-use technologies, cyber-physical threats and the democratization of access to orbit.

Meanwhile, dependence on space-based services has become absolute. Even short-term disruptions can cascade across borders, affecting financial markets, transportation systems, emergency response and humanitarian operations.

This risk was illustrated in February 2022, when a cyberattack on Viasat’s KA-SAT satellite network disrupted connectivity across parts of Europe, affecting emergency services, civilian communications, and wind energy infrastructure, underscoring how vulnerabilities in orbit can rapidly propagate across critical systems on Earth.

As space can now be considered critical infrastructure, the lack of shared operating rules can be regarded as a strategic risk. Humanity has never relied more on space, yet the mechanisms for managing congestion, coordinating traffic and preventing miscalculation remain fragmented and largely voluntary.

Diplomacy thus becomes indispensable, as a practical tool to reduce risk, build confidence and align standards across a rapidly diversifying ecosystem of actors.

Space diplomacy today is fundamentally different from that of the Cold War, when there were only a few relevant state actors. Now, a complex constellation exists, encompassing emerging space nations, commercial manufacturers and operators, scientific institutions, regulators and billions of end users whose daily lives depend on uninterrupted satellite services.

With an uptick in activity, there have also been more near-misses and operational strain. Publicly available data indicate that large satellite constellations have had to execute tens of thousands of collision-avoidance manoeuvres annually to reduce the risk of debris impacts.

Each manoeuvre consumes fuel, shortens satellite lifespans and increases uncertainty for neighbouring operators. While rarely individually dramatic, mismanaged traffic, unclear responsibility or delayed data sharing can quickly escalate into system-wide risk.

Diplomacy allows more proactive coordination through practical governance mechanisms: shared space situational awareness, transparent traffic-management data, common debris-mitigation standards and cooperative protocols for proximity operations.

The United Arab Emirates’ approach to space diplomacy comes from its experience, investing in partnerships with the United States, Europe, Japan, universities and private industry.

Our missions, including the Emirates Mars Mission and Emirates Mission to the Asteroid Belt, are grounded in international scientific collaboration, with Emirati teams working alongside global research communities. Knowledge flows two ways, strengthening national capability while contributing to collective understanding, including on governance.

The UAE has become a leading advocate for space situational awareness at the multilateral level, particularly within the United Nations. It is championing greater transparency, data sharing and coordination on orbital activity and advancing space situational awareness as a shared global responsibility rather than a competitive advantage reserved for a few.

This effort reflects a broader diplomatic objective: inviting the international community to participate more actively in shaping solutions to orbital congestion and debris, before technical challenges harden into political crises.

Industrial capacity has become a central pillar of modern space diplomacy. The UAE’s investment in Orbitworks, a joint venture established to manufacture satellites for national programmes and international clients, illustrates how shared industrial infrastructure can reinforce cooperative norms in orbit; it is also an exercise in industrial diplomacy.

By embedding international partnerships into its manufacturing model, it supports interoperability, aligns technical standards across borders and creates mutual dependencies that incentivize responsible behaviour in space. When systems are designed together and operated within shared technical frameworks, stability becomes a collective interest.

Industrial cooperation reduces fragmentation, strengthens supply-chain resilience and reinforces the idea of safe operations in orbit as a shared obligation. In this sense, diplomacy has moved beyond negotiating rooms to being built into factories, standards committees and co-developed platforms, quietly shaping how space is used daily.

For space diplomacy to succeed in the coming decade, the international community must advance on three fronts:

Establish common operating rules: Traffic coordination, debris mitigation, cybersecurity for satellites and norms governing proximity operations require urgent, collective attention to avoid the rising risk of accidental escalation.

Expand participation: Governance cannot remain the domain of limited space agencies. Emerging nations, commercial operators, scientific institutions and civil society must all help shape the norms that govern shared orbital space.

Integrate space policy with global challenges: Satellites are indispensable to climate monitoring, disaster response, biodiversity tracking and digital connectivity. Treating space governance as separate from these priorities is no longer viable.

The world has reached a point where the risks of inaction outweigh the political costs of cooperation. Space is vast, interdependent and technically unforgiving. It demands governance frameworks that reflect the realities of the 21st century, not the assumptions of an earlier geopolitical era.

The question is no longer whether we cooperate in space but whether we do so by design or by crisis. If we succeed, space can continue to expand scientific knowledge, strengthen resilience and support sustainable development on Earth. If we fail, the consequences will extend far beyond orbit, affecting every sector relying on space-based infrastructure.

Stability in space is not a zero-sum outcome; it is a shared condition. This is why space diplomacy matters and why the UAE will continue to champion an approach rooted in openness, cooperation and the belief that all should share the benefits of space.