The economic consequences of COVID-19: Why no country is immune

Oct 20, 2020

The COVID-19 pandemic is effecting every part of the world. Image: REUTERS/Carlo Allegri

Alexander Chudik

Economic Policy Advisor and Senior Economist, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas

Kamiar Mohaddes

Macroeconomist, Judge Business School, University of Cambridge

M. Hashem Pesaran

John Elliott Distinguished Chair in Economics; Emeritus Professor of Economics, University of Southern California; University of Cambridge

Mehdi Raissi

Senior Economist in the Fiscal Affairs Department, IMF

Alessandro Rebucci

Associate Professor of Finance, Johns Hopkins Carey Business School, CEPR and NBER

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Figure 1: Global volatility and GDP growth, 1979Q1-2020Q1. Image: Vox EU

Figure 2a: Estimated country-specific threshold effects, 1979 Q2-2019 Q4 in advanced economies. Image: Vox EU

Figure 2b: Estimated country-specific threshold effects, 1979 Q2-2019 Q4 in emerging economies. Image: Vox EU

Figure 3: Counterfactual real GDP projections, 2020 Q1-2021 Q4. Image: Vox EU

Figure 4: Counterfactual real GDP projections for emerging markets, 2020 Q1-2021 Q4. Image: Vox EU

Figure 5: Counterfactual real GDP projections for Sweden, 2020 Q1-2021 Q4. Image: Vox EU

Figure 6: Counterfactual projections for long-term interest rates, 2020 Q1-2021 Q4. Image: Vox EU

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