COVID-19

The economic consequences of COVID-19: Why no country is immune

The COVID-19 pandemic is effecting every part of the world. Image: REUTERS/Carlo Allegri

Alexander Chudik

Economic Policy Advisor and Senior Economist, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas

Kamiar Mohaddes

Macroeconomist, Judge Business School, University of Cambridge

M. Hashem Pesaran

John Elliott Distinguished Chair in Economics; Emeritus Professor of Economics, University of Southern California; University of Cambridge

Mehdi Raissi

Senior Economist in the Fiscal Affairs Department, IMF

Alessandro Rebucci

Associate Professor of Finance, Johns Hopkins Carey Business School, CEPR and NBER

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economics imf money gdp finance recession recovery growth negative Coronavirus china virus health healthcare who world health organization disease deaths pandemic epidemic worries concerns Health virus contagious contagion viruses diseases disease lab laboratory doctor health dr nurse medical medicine drugs vaccines vaccinations inoculations technology testing test medicinal biotechnology biotech biology chemistry physics microscope research influenza flu cold common cold bug risk symptomes respiratory china iran italy europe asia america south america north washing hands wash hands coughs sneezes spread spreading precaution precautions health warning covid 19 cov SARS 2019ncov wuhan sarscow wuhanpneumonia  pneumonia outbreak patients unhealthy fatality mortality elderly old elder age serious death deathly deadly
Figure 1: Global volatility and GDP growth, 1979Q1-2020Q1. Image: Vox EU
economics imf money gdp finance recession recovery growth negative Coronavirus china virus health healthcare who world health organization disease deaths pandemic epidemic worries concerns Health virus contagious contagion viruses diseases disease lab laboratory doctor health dr nurse medical medicine drugs vaccines vaccinations inoculations technology testing test medicinal biotechnology biotech biology chemistry physics microscope research influenza flu cold common cold bug risk symptomes respiratory china iran italy europe asia america south america north washing hands wash hands coughs sneezes spread spreading precaution precautions health warning covid 19 cov SARS 2019ncov wuhan sarscow wuhanpneumonia  pneumonia outbreak patients unhealthy fatality mortality elderly old elder age serious death deathly deadly
Figure 2a: Estimated country-specific threshold effects, 1979 Q2-2019 Q4 in advanced economies. Image: Vox EU
economics imf money gdp finance recession recovery growth negative Coronavirus china virus health healthcare who world health organization disease deaths pandemic epidemic worries concerns Health virus contagious contagion viruses diseases disease lab laboratory doctor health dr nurse medical medicine drugs vaccines vaccinations inoculations technology testing test medicinal biotechnology biotech biology chemistry physics microscope research influenza flu cold common cold bug risk symptomes respiratory china iran italy europe asia america south america north washing hands wash hands coughs sneezes spread spreading precaution precautions health warning covid 19 cov SARS 2019ncov wuhan sarscow wuhanpneumonia  pneumonia outbreak patients unhealthy fatality mortality elderly old elder age serious death deathly deadly
Figure 2b: Estimated country-specific threshold effects, 1979 Q2-2019 Q4 in emerging economies. Image: Vox EU
economics imf money gdp finance recession recovery growth negative Coronavirus china virus health healthcare who world health organization disease deaths pandemic epidemic worries concerns Health virus contagious contagion viruses diseases disease lab laboratory doctor health dr nurse medical medicine drugs vaccines vaccinations inoculations technology testing test medicinal biotechnology biotech biology chemistry physics microscope research influenza flu cold common cold bug risk symptomes respiratory china iran italy europe asia america south america north washing hands wash hands coughs sneezes spread spreading precaution precautions health warning covid 19 cov SARS 2019ncov wuhan sarscow wuhanpneumonia  pneumonia outbreak patients unhealthy fatality mortality elderly old elder age serious death deathly deadly
Figure 3: Counterfactual real GDP projections, 2020 Q1-2021 Q4. Image: Vox EU
Figure 4: Counterfactual real GDP projections for emerging markets, 2020 Q1-2021 Q4. Image: Vox EU
economics imf money gdp finance recession recovery growth negative Coronavirus china virus health healthcare who world health organization disease deaths pandemic epidemic worries concerns Health virus contagious contagion viruses diseases disease lab laboratory doctor health dr nurse medical medicine drugs vaccines vaccinations inoculations technology testing test medicinal biotechnology biotech biology chemistry physics microscope research influenza flu cold common cold bug risk symptomes respiratory china iran italy europe asia america south america north washing hands wash hands coughs sneezes spread spreading precaution precautions health warning covid 19 cov SARS 2019ncov wuhan sarscow wuhanpneumonia  pneumonia outbreak patients unhealthy fatality mortality elderly old elder age serious death deathly deadly
Figure 5: Counterfactual real GDP projections for Sweden, 2020 Q1-2021 Q4. Image: Vox EU
economics imf money gdp finance recession recovery growth negative Coronavirus china virus health healthcare who world health organization disease deaths pandemic epidemic worries concerns Health virus contagious contagion viruses diseases disease lab laboratory doctor health dr nurse medical medicine drugs vaccines vaccinations inoculations technology testing test medicinal biotechnology biotech biology chemistry physics microscope research influenza flu cold common cold bug risk symptomes respiratory china iran italy europe asia america south america north washing hands wash hands coughs sneezes spread spreading precaution precautions health warning covid 19 cov SARS 2019ncov wuhan sarscow wuhanpneumonia  pneumonia outbreak patients unhealthy fatality mortality elderly old elder age serious death deathly deadly
Figure 6: Counterfactual projections for long-term interest rates, 2020 Q1-2021 Q4. Image: Vox EU
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COVID-19Pandemic Preparedness and ResponseEconomic ProgressGeo-economicsJRS2020

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