COP26: Why 3°C of warming will lead to extreme and varied impacts

Nov 11, 2021

'The relationship between temperature increases and the effects on people, societies and economies is likely to be very highly non-linear.' Image: UNSPLASH/Matt Palmer

Nigel Arnell

Professor of Climate Change Science, Director of the Walker Institute, University of Reading

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charts showing the hange in global average heatwave, river flood and drought risk through increase in global mean temperature

Change in global average heatwave, river flood and drought risk with increase in global mean temperature. The individual lines represent different climate model projections of regional change in climate, and the horizontal line shows the indicators over the period 1981-2010 Image: Arnell et al., 2019, Author provided

charts showing the change in heatwaves, heat-stress and river flooding across England at different levels of warming.

Change in heatwaves, heat-stress and river flooding across England at different levels of warming (from Arnell et al., 2021). The two different colours represent different ensembles of climate models and highlight uncertainty. Image: Arnell et al., 2021, Author provided

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