Geo-economics

From stagflation to debt crises: What history tells us

Forecasts for global growth have been revised and downgraded over the past year Image: Unsplash/Imelda

Jongrim Ha

Senior Economist, World Bank

M. Ayhan Kose

Director, World Bank Development Prospects Group

Franziska Ohnsorge

Lead Economist, World Bank Development Prospects Group

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Two charts showing global growth and inflation forecasts
Global growth and inflation forecasts Image: Consensus Economics; World Bank/Voxeu

A chart showing interest rates and inflation during US tightening cycles
A chart showing interest rates and inflation during US tightening cycles Image: Federal Reserve Economic Data; Havers Analytics; World Bank/Voxeu

Two charts focusing on debt and interest rates
A historical perspective on debt and interest rates Image: Federal Reserve Economic Data; Haver Analytics; International Monetary Fund; Kose et al. (2020); World Bank/Voxeu
Two charts showing financial crises and vulnerabilities in EMDEs
Charts focusing on the financial crises and vulnerabilities in EMDEs Image: Kose et al. (2020); Haver Analytics; International Monetary Fund; Laeven and Valencia (2020); World Bank/Voxeu

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