Why we need to start talking about the relationship between climate change and security
Climate change and nature degradation are quickly becoming accepted as security issues. Image: REUTERS/ Abdolah Ag Mohamed
- Climate change and nature degradation are quickly becoming accepted as security issues.
- From Mexico to India, there is ample evidence that climate change and nature degradation directly impact security.
- These four key elements of a response can help us to break the climate-security nexus, making the world safer and healthier.
Climate change and the degradation of nature are no longer abstract concepts. They are occurring at pace and reshaping our world; as they do so they are exacerbating risks and creating new ones, often in ways that are under-appreciated.
Take for example the case of the US-Mexico border, which has been a political flashpoint for decades. Over the last year, a group of nonprofits interviewed thousands of migrants arriving at the US southern border about their experiences at home. While many had experienced violence or poverty, nearly half told stories of experiencing weather disasters. Some lost homes to hurricanes. Others lost crops to heat waves. Most had no safety net to help them recover. Such experiences were more prevalent in the survey than exposure to violent crime.
These migrants’ stories underscore a broader reality: extreme weather events have become frequent and severe enough that they can no longer be addressed as one-off occurrences. Instead, they should be understood as contributing factors to political crises like the one we see on the US border today.
Understanding climate and security
These crises often involve security. Evidence suggests that climate variability leads to heightened risks of interpersonal and intergroup violence. A 1°C increase in temperature has been found to increase interpersonal violence by approximately 2%, while intergroup conflict risk increases by 2.5% to 5%. This relationship is evident across varying scales — local, national and even global.
Nature loss likely has the same kind of effect. In fact, the climate and nature crises should be seen as linked and mutually reinforcing. Climate change leads to ocean acidification, drives species migration and alters precipitation patterns in ways that threaten biomes, all aspects of nature degradation. In turn, nature degradation depletes carbon sinks and creates additional CO2 emissions, via mechanisms such as wildfires or increased forest clearing, accelerating warming. These processes are amplified by the increasing resource pressure that comes from having a human population of 8 billion that is also the wealthiest in history.
As this cycle repeats it creates a negative version of the famous flywheel effect, with impacts that compound and therefore scale. We see this beginning to happen today.
For example, the conflict in Sudan has its roots in part in environmental change. To date, it has displaced 11 million people, many of whom live in camps within Sudan or in neighbouring countries. As climate change intensifies these camps have themselves become prone to weather extremes affecting sanitation and food availability, leading to well-documented incidents of refugee-local conflict. This region is expected to be among the worst affected by continued climate change, with the number of days of dangerous heat per year doubling by 2050. If this occurs while trends of refugee population growth and funding shortfalls continue, it risks creating the conditions for conflict.
Chennai, India, experienced significant population growth since the 1960s, and promoted development in such a way that lakes and other sources of water were reduced significantly. It did not plan for warming, with temperatures now so high that a fifth of rainwater evaporates. The city faced a severe water crisis in 2019 as these forces collided and groundwater and reservoirs ran dry, forcing authorities to cut off water to millions of residents, sparking protests.
In 2016 a toxic microalgae bloom caused by warm El Nino waters killed over 12 million fish in the heart of Chile’s salmon aquaculture operation. The dead salmon were dumped further offshore, leading to an even larger and more harmful algal bloom that completely shut down all fishing and shellfish efforts in the region. With the closure of both industrial and artisanal fisheries, and thousands of workers dismissed, Chileans took to the streets, blocking roads and bridges and setting fire to barricades in protest of fishery closure.
Humanity faces a dual environmental crisis: we are neither halting destruction nor preparing for its consequences. With 2024 set to be the hottest year on record and wildlife populations down 70% since the 1970s, the devastation accelerates. Meanwhile, adaptation funding falls drastically short.
In effect we are suffering from paralysis — an inability to commit fully to either solving the problem, preparing to live with it or both.
Four elements of action on climate and security
For the last few decades, the dominant global approach to resolving the environmental crisis has been to attempt to reduce carbon emissions through national or corporate commitments and pledges, or through the introduction of new market mechanisms. Both of these processes may yet yield revolutionary results. However, they have been pursued at the expense of other, complementary approaches. These include a serious and sustained effort to grapple with the possible consequences of failing to keep the flywheel of environmental degradation from spinning out of control.
A more complete and coherent approach to resolving the complex web of intertwined environmental threats should include the following elements.
1. Addressing the governance challenges of a changing world
As the climate and nature crises accelerate new threats are emerging that challenge certain elements of the status quo at both the national and global level. We need robust political and multi-stakeholder processes to identify and address these concerns now, and they need to be top priority. Most obviously, there are significant unaddressed proverbial “elephants in the room.” These include the sovereignty of island nations under threat from sea level rise, the looming stranded asset crisis (in particular housing in the rich world), governance of areas such as the arctic and its resources and climate-driven migration.
Military and defence organizations are increasingly on the frontlines of managing climate-driven disruptions, from responding to natural disasters to stabilizing regions affected by resource scarcity. Incorporating environmental threats into national security strategies is essential to preparing for the cascading risks climate change and nature degradation will bring.
2. Restoring ecosystems to stabilize climate and mitigate risks
Climate change is degrading ecosystems, and in turn, the decline of nature accelerates warming — a self-reinforcing cycle that must be disrupted. Restoration and conservation efforts provide a critical opportunity to address this. Healthy ecosystems act as buffers against the impacts of climate events by reducing floods, droughts and storms. Importantly, prioritizing nature restoration alongside emissions reductions gives equal attention to this essential component of Earth’s balance. Cooperative resource management, like water-sharing agreements in drought-prone regions, not only preserves nature’s benefits but also reduces the risk of conflict born from resource scarcity.
3. Transforming global food systems
The earth systems crisis poses serious risks to food systems, undermining economic stability and social cohesion, particularly in fragile regions. Additionally, improving access to financial tools like crop insurance and credit for smallholder farmers can provide much-needed stability in the face of climate shocks. Regional food storage and distribution networks should also be expanded to buffer against localized crop failures, ensuring food security in times of crisis. Strengthening international trade systems to account for climate volatility can further reduce disruptions and maintain consistent food supply chains to vulnerable regions.
4. Repositioning climate adaptation
Adaptation has often been portrayed as an issue solely relevant to developing nations, but the reality is more complex. While adaptation is critical in protecting vulnerable communities already facing the brunt of climate disruption, it is increasingly vital for all nations and industries. Preparing for the physical risks of a changed world requires protecting people and systems. Achieving this will not only increase immediate-term resilience but also spur further mitigation action by highlighting the tangible risks of inaction. From developing insurance markets to support farmers against crop losses to designing infrastructure for a warming world, adaptation benefits everyone in today’s interconnected global economy.
Climate change and the degradation of nature are quickly becoming accepted as security risks that we must address. While the challenges are great, the need is even greater — and taking account of these four elements is crucial to economies and businesses worldwide seeking to take action on the climate-security nexus.
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