Metals at scale for AI at scale: securing the data centre materials backbone

Global demand for data centres is accelerating. By 2030, capacity could exceed 100 GW, almost double today’s installed base, with a sharp shift towards AI-optimized facilities that require more power, cooling and specialized equipment. Every added megawatt embeds tens of tonnes of metals and minerals, tying digital expansion to a complex global supply system.

Understanding this materials backbone – and its risk implications – is now essential.

Each megawatt (MW) embeds around 60-75 tonnes of minerals, mainly in power and cooling systems, rather than servers.

Examples illustrate the scale:

As AI-dedicated facilities rise – from ~25% today to more than 60% by 2035 – material intensity increases, with higher rack densities, heavier electrical backbones and more robust cooling.

This growing footprint links every facility to the full minerals chain – from mining to processing, manufacturing to end-product and the power systems behind it. Material dependence becomes structural exposure.

Mineral reliance appears through three exposure channels: access pressures, long-lead equipment delays and system-wide concentration risks.

Drawing on consultations with executives in the data centre value chain, these emerged as the most salient because they cut across geopolitics and trade, infrastructure, market, energy, skills, sustainability and technology.

Access to critical minerals for servers, networking, cooling and power systems is increasingly unpredictable.

Gallium and germanium – vital for semiconductors and optical transceivers – experienced 25-30% price spikes following 2023-2024 export restrictions, illustrating how geopolitical decisions propagate through component supply. Copper and aluminium continue to swing sharply due to market volatility, tariffs and declining ore grades, influencing equipment pricing and supplier capacity.

While not dominating total spend, these fluctuations shape availability, timelines and design choices.

Several essential components depend on minerals whose supply chains face bottlenecks. Limited output of grain-oriented electrical steel (GOES) constrains transformer production; similar bottlenecks affect generators and switchgear.

Large power transformers – critical for energizing new facilities – now require two to three years to procure, compared with weeks before 2020; backup generators often take one to two years. Labour shortages and long permitting cycles add to the delay.

Data halls can remain fully built yet idle for months while awaiting delayed grid-connection equipment, underscoring how upstream bottlenecks stall readiness.

Anecdotally, data centre component manufacturers note that testing equipment before shipping also requires considerable electricity input.

As data centre build-out and grid-connection needs expand, demand concentrates across a narrow set of metals.

Estimates suggest over 4.3 million tonnes of copper could be associated with data centres and adjacent power infrastructure by 2035. Industry outlooks warn of a 25-30% copper shortfall by 2035, underscoring long-term exposure as facility and grid demand rise together and how resources and energy, sustainability, licence-to-operate and recycling influence future availability.

Material dependence has become a structural determinant of delivery timelines, equipment availability and long-term resilience.

Because data centres represent a small share of global metal consumption, data centre operators cannot shape outcomes alone; they must contribute to broader efforts across miners, refiners, manufacturers, utilities, financiers and policymakers. Resilience depends on better coordination, planning and flexibility across the ecosystem.

A coherent response draws on five reinforcing capabilities to which different actors across the value chain can contribute:

Visibility means building a shared understanding of where minerals sit across data centre subsystems and how supply dynamics are evolving.

Examples include: early mapping of material needs across power, cooling, IT hardware and grid-connection equipment, as well as strengthened monitoring of upstream mining and refining.

Legitimacy and trust refer to the ability of neutral platforms to convene operators, manufacturers, utilities and policy-makers, creating shared situational awareness.

Industry forums or public-private dialogues, for instance, can help align expectations on long-lead components or emerging bottlenecks.

Influence involves shaping interoperable standards or frameworks that reduce qualification delays and widen sourcing options.

Examples include: regional work to harmonize testing requirements, standardize specifications or define recycled-content thresholds that streamline procurement and enhance flexibility.

Execution capacity reflects the ability to translate insight into delivery by expanding options and strengthening preparedness.

Illustrative practices include: earlier procurement of long-lead equipment, dual-qualification of suppliers and design choices enabling copper-aluminium substitution. Circularity also reinforces capacity. The Microsoft-Western Digital pilot, for example, shows how targeted recovery of high-value components (including rare-earth magnets) can diversify inputs and reduce exposure.

Technology enablement provides the tools to anticipate bottlenecks and test scenarios before disruptions occur.

Traceability pilots, predictive analytics and system-wide modelling tools are being tested across several sectors to improve visibility and forward planning.

Together, these capabilities support a more resilient digital-infrastructure base that can scale with long-term demand, while withstanding volatility across the minerals system.

As the digital economy expands, its material foundations matter more than ever. The reliability of data centres increasingly depends on a minerals system characterized by concentrated supply, rising demand and long-lead cycles. Strengthening resilience through visibility, flexibility and coordinated action will be essential to enable digital infrastructure to grow at the pace the 21^st century requires.

Read the report From Minerals to Megawatts: Building Resilience for EVs, Data Centres and Power Grids to explore this further.