10 things migration policymakers need to know about AI

Artificial intelligence (AI) may feel like the latest policy trend, but the public debate about its use has intensified sharply with the development of generative AI and concerns about artificial superintelligence developments.

But for migration policymakers, AI is nothing new.

AI-related technologies have been used in migration systems for decades, even if they were not always described in today’s language. Some of the earliest examples involved using machine learning to analyse vast amounts of identity data, or algorithms to assess electronic visa application information. For years now, we have all also witnessed the growth in biometric data capture and analysis at borders through "smart gates".

What has changed more recently is the profile, speed and political salience of the issue.

AI has moved from technical infrastructure into mainstream debate, and migration policymakers now need to engage with it directly. With that in mind, there are 10 things migration policymakers need to know about AI:

AI is already embedded across migration and mobility systems, including being used for visa information and processing, identity verification, border management, asylum-related processes, refugee support, job matching, return processes and forecasting.

This is not a future scenario. Migrants, refugees, governments and partners are already experiencing AI’s effects, whether or not these are framed as “AI policy”.

AI depends on underlying digital systems, data capture and digital capabilities. But digitalization does not automatically lead to AI deployment.

This distinction matters because many policy debates collapse the two. In practice, the immediate issue in many countries is still whether these digital foundations exist at all.

There is no single universally agreed definition of AI. It is better understood as a group of related technologies designed to perform tasks that would normally require human intelligence, including algorithms, machine learning, natural language processing, visual recognition and robotics.

Generative AI has added complexity here because large language models can generate text, images and other content. But they remain narrow, task-based systems, and they are infamously prone to error.

AI raises a fundamental question: who gets access, who is left out and who bears the risks?

Wealthier countries are better placed to build and deploy AI-enabled migration systems that use vast amounts of data. Poorer countries face barriers in infrastructure, connectivity, electricity, skills and digital channels.

The risk is that AI deepens mobility inequality between states and entrenches structural disadvantage.

Digital access varies sharply within countries. Sex, income, geography, literacy, disability, legal status and connectivity all shape whether people can use digital and AI-enabled migration systems.

Women in developing countries may be especially disadvantaged when migration systems assume access to smartphones, documents, stable connectivity and digital literacy. Inclusion cannot be added later, it must be designed into a system from the start.

AI can support faster services, better access to information, streamlined processing, improved analytics and more responsive systems. But benefits can be undermined by weak design, poor implementation, unequal access and inadequate oversight.

Key risks include surveillance, privacy harms, data-sharing vulnerabilities, bias, discrimination, opacity, legal responsibility gaps and cybersecurity threats – and ultimately, the erosion of human rights.

Migration-related AI implementation is increasingly shaped by non-state and commercial actors. Private technology companies, platforms, contractors, airlines and other actors are building and operating systems that affect mobility.

This raises hard questions about public oversight, transparency and whose interests digital systems serve. Policymakers need to know not only what a system does, but who designed it, who owns the data and who is accountable when harm occurs.

AI matters in migration systems, but also in the information environment surrounding migration. It can amplify false narratives, xenophobia and harmful public discourse. It can also help detect and counter disinformation and support more accurate communication.

This connects AI directly to social cohesion, public trust and the policy space for migration and displacement responses.

AI forecasting tools can help governments and partners anticipate large-scale displacement as well as managed migration. As such, they can play a part in improving preparedness and planning services, fundraising and budgeting, as well as organizing operational responses earlier.

Rather than eliminating uncertainty, forecasting is about making uncertainty actionable for better decision-making and more timely responses. This involves a shift from reactive programming to earlier planning and resilience-building.

With both effective response to human displacement and humanitarian funding diminishing globally, however, this presents a challenging paradox in that we can know more about what’s coming, but we are doing less to prevent and respond to displacement.

Migration’s development effects depend heavily on how migrants’ skills and attributes match labour market demand. AI is increasingly relevant to job matching, skills systems and livelihoods.

At the same time, automation may alter demand for workers in key sectors and corridors, including the South Asia-Gulf “mega-corridor”. This could affect migrant workers looking for retail, hospitality, transportation, health and education jobs.

For migration policymakers, the question is not whether AI belongs in migration systems. It’s already there. The real question is whether AI will make migration governance more inclusive, rights-based and effective – or more unequal, opaque and exclusionary.

This will depend on how policymakers use AI, as well as the specific development, protection and accountability issues that increasingly intersect with the emerging reshaping of the geopolitical order.

AI in migration and mobility is increasingly becoming one of the most compelling and complex strategic issues of our time. It has the potential to shape the lives – and livelihoods – of millions of people globally for the better.