• Airlines are retiring planes as passenger numbers plummet due to the pandemic.
  • The iconic jumbo jet is the biggest victim of the airliner cull, and the world’s largest operator has retired its entire 747 fleet.
  • Some retired planes are converted to freighters.
  • The global market for recycled plane parts will be worth $6 billion by 2022.

The world’s biggest operator of the Boeing 747 has announced it is withdrawing its entire fleet of the planes. But does retirement mean the end of the runway for airliners?

The iconic jumbo jet is the latest victim of the slump in air travel caused by the pandemic that has seen passenger numbers decline by almost two-thirds. British Airways is retiring its 31-strong 747 fleet, the world’s largest, with immediate effect.

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This is how much the COVID-19 pandemic has caused passenger numbers to decline.
Image: ICAO

Dutch airline KLM, Air France, Delta and United in the United States and Australia’s Qantas have already retired their 747s. Boeing is reportedly considering ending production of the 747 in 2022 when outstanding orders for freighter versions are completed.

The company is also working on converting two already-built passenger 747s into replacements for the US presidential Air Force One planes for delivery in 2024. The two aircraft were left undelivered after the Russian airline that ordered them filed for bankruptcy.

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Here's the world's largest Boeing 747 operators.
Image: Statista

The 747’s rival, the 850-seat Airbus A380 superjumbo, has already ceased production after the cancellation of a large order. Some early examples of the airliner that first flew as recently as 2005 are already being scrapped.

Aviation

What is the World Economic Forum doing to reduce aviation's carbon footprint?

As other sectors proceed to decarbonize, the aviation sector could account for a much higher share of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by mid-century than its 2%-3% share today. With the number of air travel passengers expected to double by 2035, there's a strong urgency for the aviation industry to act to ensure it can meet this demand in an environmentally sustainable manner.

Sustainable aviation fuels (SAF) can reduce the life-cycle carbon footprint of aviation fuel by up to 80%, but they currently make up less than 0.1% of total aviation fuel consumption. Enabling a shift from fossil fuels to SAFs will require a significant increase in production, which is a costly investment.

Launched in September 2019, the Forum’s Clean Skies for Tomorrow (CST) Coalition is a global initiative driving the transition to sustainable aviation fuels (SAF) as part of the aviation industry’s ambitious efforts to achieve carbon-neutral flying.

Run in collaboration with the Energy Transitions Commission and the Rocky Mountain Institute, with the Air Transport Action Group as an advisory partner, CST brings together government leaders, climate experts and CEOs from aviation, energy, finance and other sectors who agree on the urgent need to help the aviation industry reach net-zero carbon emissions by 2050.

Learn more about the Clean Skies for Tomorrow Coalition's impact and contact us to find out how you can get involved.

Two-thirds of the world’s airliners were grounded in April by the collapse in air travel caused by the pandemic, according to aviation data source Cirium. By July, as other types began returning to service, only seven A380s and just 31 passenger 747s were operational.

Cargo conversions

So what happens to planes when they retire? Some will live on flying for other airlines, although in the case of the two jumbo types that might be unlikely.

A second option is to use them as freighters. Cargo conversions of the smaller Boeing 777 and 767 have proved popular and a freight conversion of the A300 – the original Airbus, first built in 1972 – is still flying parcels for DHL.

Boeing 747 freighters, with hinged noses to admit bulky cargoes, are likely to outlive their passenger counterparts by years. Some passenger versions may be converted by adding large side doors.

A dedicated freight version of the A380 never got off the drawing board but now a German company is working on converting surplus superjumbos to cargo carriers. The company says 40 airlines are interested in the project.

Stripped for parts

Aircraft all have finite lives – the period they are safe to fly before metal fatigue poses a safety threat. When their time is up there is still value in a plane’s many systems and parts and breaking them up for spares is increasingly profitable.

That’s because while the plane itself may need retiring, most parts will have been replaced many times. Everything from the engines and undercarriages to the seats and window blinds may have years of life left when the plane is scrapped.

Circular economy

What is a circular economy?

The global population is expected to reach close to 9 billion people by 2030 – inclusive of 3 billion new middle-class consumers.This places unprecedented pressure on natural resources to meet future consumer demand.

A circular economy is an industrial system that is restorative or regenerative by intention and design. It replaces the end-of-life concept with restoration, shifts towards the use of renewable energy, eliminates the use of toxic chemicals and aims for the elimination of waste through the superior design of materials, products, systems and business models.

Nothing that is made in a circular economy becomes waste, moving away from our current linear ‘take-make-dispose’ economy. The circular economy’s potential for innovation, job creation and economic development is huge: estimates indicate a trillion-dollar opportunity.

The World Economic Forum has collaborated with the Ellen MacArthur Foundation for a number of years to accelerate the Circular Economy transition through Project MainStream - a CEO-led initiative that helps to scale business driven circular economy innovations.

Join our project, part of the World Economic Forum’s Shaping the Future of Environment and Natural Resource Security System Initiative, by contacting us to become a member or partner.

The second-hand aviation spares market is so big that Honeywell, which also makes new aircraft parts, set up a blockchain-based online marketplace to allow airlines to buy validated used parts. It sold $5 million worth of spares last year.

Airbus subsidiary Satair, which specializes in recovering parts from retired Airbus airliners, says the total market for recycled airliner parts will reach $6 billion by 2022 – 70% of that coming from the sale of used engines and their parts.

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End of life: planes being recycled in a boneyard.
Image: Reuters/Bruno Martin

Gone but not forgotten?

Not all retired airlines live on or become donors. Some simply go into storage. The dry atmosphere of the Southwestern US makes it a popular location for aircraft boneyards, such as in California’s Mojave Desert, where planes wait in the often forlorn hope of a recall to the skies.

Others end up as museum exhibits. The prototype 747 – serial number 001 – has been restored at Seattle’s Museum of Flight. When the museum reopens after the pandemic, it may be among the last places you can climb aboard a jumbo jet.