How strategic foresight can future-proof the Gulf’s energy transition

The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states – Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain and Oman – are at the heart of one of the most complex transitions of the 21st century.

For decades, the region’s prosperity has been underpinned by oil and gas exports that fueled rapid urbanization, world-class infrastructure and generous social welfare systems. In places such as Bahrain, state fossil fuel revenue has nearly doubled as a portion of gross domestic product (GDP) since 2000.

However, as the global energy system evolves, GCC states are generally experiencing declines in oil and gas exports. At the same time, the GCC is already one of the hottest and driest places on Earth – Abu Dhabi in the UAE, for instance, reached 51.8 degrees Celsius in 2021.

In the Saudi capital Riyadh, heatwaves are projected to appear nearly 20 times per year, lasting around 10 days each, by 2040-2060.

Therefore, for the GCC, the global energy transition is not only an economic imperative but a matter of climate and societal resilience.

An impactful way to cohere this complex challenge is through strategic foresight methodologies – a structured exploration of possible futures to inform today’s decisions.

By applying foresight methods such as the “Futures Triangle” and the “Three Horizons” frameworks, policymakers can navigate complexity in a world that is increasingly less linear.

It helps reconcile near-term economic realities with long-term sustainability ambitions, assisting governments to identify where to invest and how to manage systemic risks and anticipate shifts in technology and global demand.

The Futures Triangle, developed by futurist Sohail Inayatullah, helps leaders map three forces shaping the future:

By visualizing these forces, policymakers can identify leverage points and see how overcoming the past can determine the future. GCC countries can identify where emerging technologies or social innovations can reduce the weight of legacy systems while amplifying the pull of a sustainable future.

While the Futures Triangle clarifies what is shaping the future, the Three Horizons framework helps manage the transition between timeframes. It is a tool that helps leaders navigate uncertainty by exploring immediate, transitional and long-term changes.

Horizon 1 presents how we accomplish things today, Horizon 2 is the transitional space that utilizes innovation to reach Horizon 3, which is the long-term vision.

Saudi Arabia’s Jubail CCS Hub provides a strong example of how foresight frameworks can guide complex energy transitions, with a target to capture up to 9 million metric tons of carbon dioxide annually by 2027 across industrial clusters, thereby helping to enable the national petroleum company Aramco’s goal of net-zero Scope 1 and 2 emissions by 2050.

Applying the Futures Triangle to this case:

In the Three Horizons view, Jubail serves as a bridge between the carbon-intensive present (Horizon 1) and a diversified, low-carbon future (Horizon 3). The infrastructure, skills and governance developed through (Horizon 2) CCS hubs, hydrogen corridors and policy reform are essential stepping stones to achieving systemic transformation.

Qatar’s Al Kharsaah Solar Power Plant exemplifies a “pull from the future” by actively shaping Qatar’s energy transition and decarbonization trajectory.

The solar plant helps counter decades of dependence on gas-fired power and fossil-fuel infrastructure i.e. the “weight of the past,” which locked the country into carbon-intensive patterns and high energy subsidies.

Therefore, from a Three Horizons standpoint, this solar plant represents a critical Horizon 2 project, providing energy infrastructure that bridges to the Horizon 3 future.

To future-proof the Gulf’s energy and climate resilience, foresight must become as integral to policymaking as fiscal planning or engineering design. The tension between the future, past and present can create panic and concern but if diligently applied, can cohere what are otherwise disparate and incoherent signals.

By embedding foresight offices in GCC energy authorities and ministries, the Gulf can transform from a region that is reactive to global trends into one that actively shapes them, thereby changing the narrative from “oil in the desert” to one of visionary and adaptive leadership in the age of decarbonization.

Rafia Al-Jassim is a Global Shaper for the Doha hub and a World Economic Forum Future 50 Leader.