Can countries rely on their space systems without going it alone?

For more than half a century, humanity has explored and developed space as a new frontier. But today, space increasingly serves as critical economic infrastructure societies rely on.

Communications, navigation, financial systems, disaster response and national security already depend on orbital assets. This dependence will deepen as satellite networks expand and new space segments, from orbital data centres to commercial space stations, become economically viable.

Many countries are increasingly recognizing space as critical domestic infrastructure underpinning national security and economic resilience. This shift in how governments view space was also discussed by leaders from government, industry, academia and civil society at the World Economic Forum’s Annual Meeting in Davos earlier this year.

Against this backdrop, countries that position space as a strategic priority are increasingly aware of the risks of relying on others for space capabilities.

As a result, more countries are seeking to build autonomous space capabilities by strengthening domestic research and development and developing their own space industries.

The definition of sovereign space capabilities differs from country to country, depending on their priorities, needs and circumstances.

At a high-level breakfast co-hosted by World Economic Forum and SPACETIDE Foundation in Tokyo in July, participants discussed different approaches to space sovereignty.

Conversation also broached which domains of the space economy are most exposed to international dependency risks and how leaders can address those risks while building commercially viable and globally competitive capabilities.

Hiroshi Yamakawa, president of Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency, described space sovereignty as the autonomy to conduct space activities including assured access to orbit, as well as the ability to use space capabilities to support national decision-making.

Le Na Ngiam, chief executive of the National Space Agency of Singapore, added that access to and control over critical data is another key element of sovereign space capabilities.

Government efforts to strengthen domestic space capabilities could serve as an important and predictable anchor for the long-term growth of the commercial space industry, as they can help drive public and private investment into the sector.

Jun Kazeki, former director-general of the National Space Policy Secretariat in Japan, highlighted how Japan is positioning space as an engine of economic growth and next generation infrastructure underpinning a safe and sustainable use of outer space as well as a free and open Indo-Pacific by supporting regional security.

At the same time, an excessive pursuit of sovereign capabilities could undermine important trends that have supported the growth of the space sector in recent years: lower costs and international collaboration.

Kazuto Suzuki, director of the Institute of Geoeconomics in Japan, warned that “the pursuit of space sovereignty could lead to higher costs.”

Similarly, Motoyuki Arai, CEO of Synspective, stated that “space sovereignty without interoperability leads to isolation.”

He highlighted the risk that an excessive focus on sovereign space capabilities could undermine collective action when needed, particularly in times of crisis, when few countries have the capacity to provide all the necessary information and services independently.

How should the space sector approach these challenges? Rebecca Evernden, director of the UK Space Agency, noted that “a systems-of-systems approach is essential to addressing the challenge of space sovereignty.”

Such an approach recognizes that resilience does not require every country to own and operate every layer of the space value chain. Instead, independently governed systems must be able to work together across institutional and national boundaries among key stakeholders.

The industry architecture should include several key elements:

As the challenges differ across space domains, it is important to discuss and develop such architectures for each domain.

The satellite sector provides one example. As satellite infrastructure continues to grow, we will be able to utilize increasingly abundant data to deliver more actionable, evidence-based intelligence, particularly for a wide range of national priorities including national security, disaster response, climate monitoring, infrastructure management and economic resilience.

At the same time, AI-enabled analytics are enhancing our ability to derive insights from data. In this area, countries naturally seek to maintain their own access to critical data, while collaboration among allies and like-minded countries is also essential.

In response, we are beginning to see new architectures emerge, where countries maintain their own data and AI analytics capabilities while sharing and utilizing the insights generated from them to achieve greater integration and build a common operational picture across countries.

Ronda Scrhenk, CEO of the United States Geospatial Intelligence Foundation, underscored the importance of this data sharing by remarking that although sovereign capabilities may be necessary in certain contexts, it is important that sovereignty does not lead to unnecessary, inefficient data siloes.

In the Space Situational Awareness domain, Anirudh Sharma, CEO of Digantara, underscored the national-security importance of maintaining an authoritative catalogue of space objects and the need for broader collaboration.

For the cislunar domain, Takeshi Hakamada, CEO of ispace emphasized that sustainable lunar activity will depend on increasingly interconnected assets and operations, and establishing shared interfaces and operational principles will therefore be critical to avoiding fragmented or incompatible lunar systems.

Commercial space stations present different challenges. The effort is predominantly led by US companies and countries who seek access to low Earth orbit platforms through US-led platforms will be influenced by US requirements, export controls and technical standards.

Not all countries can build the full spectrum of space capabilities on its own. Open access to data, public-private partnerships and interoperable national systems have become essential to its sustainable development.

This requires a clearer assessment of how national security and economic resilience priorities shape the types and degree of sovereignty and autonomy that countries seek across areas of the space sector such as satellite services, launch, space situational awareness and cislunar activity.

Stakeholders must work towards an interoperable architecture that strengthens national resilience while enabling countries to work together internationally.

Achieving this will require sustained dialogue among industry, governments and investors to develop policy and investment frameworks that strike the right balance between strategic autonomy, commercial competitiveness and long-term sustainability.