Shocks, international trade, and diversification: Lessons from the pandemic

COVID-19 caused a collapse in international trade. Image: Unsplash/ CHUTTERSNAP

Ting Lan

Economist, IMF

Davide Malacrino

Economist, Research Department, IMF

Adil Mohommad

Economist, Research Department of the IMF

Andrea F. Presbitero

Senior Economist, International Monetary Fund

Galen Sher

Economist, International Monetary Fund


Our Impact
The Big Picture
Explore and monitor how COVID-19 is affecting economies, industries and global issues
Crowdsource Innovation
Get involved with our crowdsourced digital platform to deliver impact at scale

Stay up to date:


Old models no longer worked as well during the pandemic. Image: Global Health Security Index; Google, Community Mobility Reports; Hale and others (2021); Our World in Data; World Trade Organization; and IMF staff calculations.

International spillovers from the containment policies by trading partners also contributed to the collapse in trade in 2020. Image: Hale and others (2021); IMF, Direction of Trade Statistics; and IMF staff calculations.

Pandemics, wars, climate change and cyberattacks prompt GVCs to become more resilient. Image: Trade Data Monitor; and IMF staff calculations.

More internationally diversified sourcing could reduce the economic impact of a supply disruption. Image: IMF staff calculations.

How is the Forum helping to navigate global value chain disruption?

License and Republishing

World Economic Forum articles may be republished in accordance with the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International Public License, and in accordance with our Terms of Use.

The views expressed in this article are those of the author alone and not the World Economic Forum.

Related topics:

COVID-19Trade and InvestmentSupply Chains


Global Agenda

The Agenda Weekly

A weekly update of the most important issues driving the global agenda


You can unsubscribe at any time using the link in our emails. For more details, review our privacy policy.

A sustainable path to lasting recovery for Small Island Developing States lies in the ocean and the building of a robust blue economy
About Us
Partners & Members
Language Editions

Privacy Policy & Terms of Service

© 2022 World Economic Forum