How internet shutdowns silently drain Africa’s economy

In an increasingly digitized Africa, turning off the internet doesn’t just silence voices, it bleeds economies and undermines the continent’s progress towards inclusive growth. Internet shutdowns – defined as intentional disruptions of the internet or electronic communications imposed to control information flows – are becoming an increasingly common policy tool across Africa.

While the full economic toll of shutdowns is difficult to measure precisely, credible models such as the Internet Society’s NetLoss Calculator demonstrate that even brief disruptions can inflict substantial costs on national economies. Shutdowns disrupt e-commerce, stall cross-border payments, paralyse mobile money transactions, and cut off millions of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) and informal businesses that rely on digital platforms for survival.

As Africa’s digital economy continues to grow, these disruptions represent an escalating threat to financial stability and long-term development. With 500 million online shoppers already connected by 2025, Africa’s e-commerce market is projected to reach $940 billion in value by 2032. The continent is also positioning itself as a digital services exporter. This is expected to reach $74 billion by 2040, while the cross-border payments market is forecast to hit $1 trillion by 2035. The African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) is designed to boost this momentum by promoting digital inclusion and trade connectivity.

At the heart of this transformation are millions of SMEs, many operating in informal markets and relying on mobile money, social media and digital tools to sell, communicate and grow. But these gains are fragile. Without reliable, uninterrupted internet access, progress can quickly unravel.

Internet shutdowns affect every layer of the economy, from tech hubs in Nairobi to informal markets in Conakry. One of the most visibly disrupted sectors is e-commerce, where transactions rely on real-time connectivity to manage orders, inventory and payments. When connectivity vanishes, so does business activity. Even brick-and-mortar retail businesses suffer as many now rely on internet-connected point-of-sale systems.

The impact on SMEs is equally severe. In Africa’s emerging digital ecosystem, many SMEs and informal businesses have embraced tools like WhatsApp, Facebook Marketplace and Instagram to reach customers, manage sales and promote services. With limited access to alternative infrastructure or financial reserves, a shutdown can mean a complete halt in operations or even closures.

In the financial and trade sectors, internet outages affect everything from mobile money transactions to cross-border logistics. Payment processors go offline, banks become unreachable and regional supply chains unravel. For a continent increasingly reliant on digital solutions, this creates both short-term losses and long-term strategic setbacks.

While GDP losses are the most visible consequence of internet shutdowns, their hidden costs run deeper and may be more damaging in the long term.

First, shutdowns erode public trust in institutions. When governments use connectivity as a lever of control, citizens begin to question the reliability of digital services, especially in critical sectors like banking, healthcare, and education. This not only affects adoption rates, but also undermines the broader digitalisation agenda many countries are pursuing.

Second, the climate of regulatory uncertainty deters foreign and domestic investment. Investors in sectors like fintech, e-commerce, and digital infrastructure require stability and predictability. Frequent or politically motivated shutdowns signal risk, increasing capital costs and often leading investors to redirect funds to lower risk markets.

Third, there is the long-term risk of digital poverty. When access to information, markets and online learning platforms is repeatedly disrupted, people and businesses fall behind. Inconsistent connectivity widens inequality, especially among youth, rural communities and women entrepreneurs.

This undermines years of progress in digital literacy, economic inclusion and innovation. Collaboration between startups, universities and tech hubs often occurs through cloud-based platforms and real-time communications. Cutting off access interrupts this dynamic ecosystem and reduces the continent’s global competitiveness in emerging technologies.

The NetLoss Calculator, developed by the Internet Society, offers an economic framework to estimate the impact of internet shutdowns based on intentional, technically verifiable, and wide-scale disruptions. While specific national loss figures may vary, the methodology demonstrates that even short-term shutdowns can lead to millions of dollars in losses.

A true solution will require political will, legal accountability and inclusive collaboration.

Encouragingly, recent legal decisions in Africa suggest a shift toward stronger digital rights protections. In May 2025, the ECOWAS Court of Justice ruled that Senegal’s internet shutdown during the June–July 2023 protests was unlawful and violated citizens' rights to freedom of expression and access to information. Days later, Kenya’s High Court issued an injunction prohibiting the government from arbitrarily disrupting internet services, setting a precedent for constitutional oversight.

These rulings mark a growing judicial acknowledgement that internet access is essential for modern life. To move forward, African governments and stakeholders must act on this momentum.

Four priority actions stand out:

1. Codify legal safeguards against arbitrary or politically motivated internet shutdowns, ensuring due process and rights-based justifications.

2. Develop transparent emergency protocols that preserve national security without compromising digital connectivity or economic continuity.

3. Foster multistakeholder governance, bringing together civil society, private sector actors and technical experts to inclusively shape digital policies.

4. Invest in infrastructure resilience to mitigate the impact of localised disruptions and ensure broader digital inclusion.

By taking these steps, African nations can reinforce both digital freedoms and economic stability, building a future where the internet is protected, not weaponized.

Africa’s digital economy is no longer a distant aspiration – it is a defining feature of the present. Disrupting it, even briefly, amounts to economic self-harm.

As digital trade, online services and mobile payments become pillars of economic activity across the continent, safeguarding internet access must be treated as a strategic economic imperative.

To thrive in the Fourth Industrial Revolution, Africa must regard the internet the same way it does electricity or water: a foundational utility essential for inclusive growth, resilience and long-term prosperity.