Climate Change

Existing Paris climate pledges commit sea level rise to ‘one metre by 2300’

Waves crash against the coastal wall in the village of Carnlough as high tides and strong winds cause some flooding in coastal areas of Northern Ireland. Image: REUTERS/Cathal McNaughton

Robert McSweeney

Science Editor, Carbon Brief

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Charts shows total annual CO2 emissions including land use for the stylised scenario in billion tonnes of carbon per year (left) and the resulting global average temperature (middle) and global average sea level relative to 1985-2006 (right). Bold lines show median projections and shading indicates the 66% range, For sea level rise, the chart also shows projections under RCP2.6 from AR5 and previous studies Mengel et al. (2016), “M16”, and Rogejl et al. (2014), “K17”.
Image: Nauels et al. (2019)

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Charts show breakdown of emissions (left-hand charts), global temperature (middle) and global sea level rise contributions (right) for the IPCC period (upper row) and the Paris period (lower row) out to 2030, 2100 and 2300, respectively, in the stylised scenario. Emissions in billion tonnes of carbon per year. Sea level rise is relative to 1986-2005. Shading indicates the contributions from China (dark brown), the US (pale brown), the EU28 (mid brown), India (light blue) and Russia (dark blue).
Image: Nauels et al. (2019)
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