WTO sounds alarm on trade risks as 2025 outlook weakens, and other international trade stories to know this month

Global merchandise trade is expected to decline by 0.2% in 2025, with North America facing a significant 12.6% drop in exports, the World Trade Organization (WTO) has warned.

The decline could be even steeper, falling by 1.5%, if trade tensions worsen, including the reactivation of US “reciprocal tariffs” and increasing policy uncertainty.

Here are the WTO's key concerns:

The WTO also forecasts slower growth for services trade, which is expected to rise by 4.0%, down from earlier projections. Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala highlighted concerns about the global impact, saying, “The enduring uncertainty threatens to act as a brake on global growth, with severe negative consequences for the world, particularly for the most vulnerable economies.”

The report underscores the risks posed by continued trade policy volatility, especially for export-dependent economies and least-developed countries.

Meanwhile, the Brookings-FT Tracking Indexes for the Global Economic Recovery posted similar findings, with one analyst commenting: "Every open economy that relies on trade is going to get squeezed, and on top of that, you will have [negative] confidence effects.”

Global finance leaders are meeting in Washington this week for the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank Spring Meetings, with trade tensions – particularly US tariff policy – emerging as the dominant issue, says Reuters.

Here's a roundup of what to look out for:

With trade taking precedence over broader policy coordination, all eyes will be on how key economies respond to shifting US positions.

US stocks fell sharply on 21 April, with major indexes down more than 2% and hitting one-week lows. Investor sentiment was pressured by renewed criticism of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell from President Donald Trump, prompting concerns over central bank independence. Big tech stocks were hit hardest. On Tuesday, futures pointed to a slight rebound, though the US dollar stayed near a three-year low.

Amid ongoing economic uncertainty, gold prices briefly surpassed $3,500 an ounce on 22 April, reaching a record high of $3,500.05, after their biggest monthly jump since 2012. Spot gold was up around 1% at $3,457.12 by mid-morning GMT, while US gold futures rose 1.3% to $3,469.50.

Chinese state-backed investors are scaling back new allocations to US private equity funds, according to a Financial Times (FT) report citing several industry executives. The move, reportedly prompted by government pressure, reflects growing caution amid ongoing trade tensions. Some funds are also aiming to reduce indirect exposure to US companies through non-US investment vehicles, the FT says.

In the face of high tariffs and disruption, China has warned other nations against making side deals that could undermine its global trading position, the BBC reports.

The European Union (EU) is exploring ways to help US gas exports meet its methane emissions standards, aiming to reduce the risk of a trade dispute, according to sources cited by Reuters. The move comes as the EU prepares its proposal for trade negotiations with the United States, with energy expected to be part of a broader deal.

Easter weekend rain in Germany lifted Rhine water levels, allowing vessels to carry more cargo – especially at Kaub, a key chokepoint. But levels remain below normal, continuing to limit full operations, traders told Reuters.

India's economy is less exposed to global volatility, supported by strong domestic demand and investment, the country's Reserve Bank said in its April bulletin. It noted that above-normal monsoon forecasts and easing inflation could further bolster growth amid global trade uncertainty.

Japanese Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato said he plans to deepen discussions on currency issues with US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent during a visit to Washington. Kato will attend G20 and IMF meetings, with the timing of a bilateral meeting still being arranged, Bloomberg reports.

Can Europe chart a way out of global trade tensions, asks Brookings' Richard Samans? With the US and China taking increasingly hardline stances on trade, the risk to the global economy is growing, he writes. But Europe may be well placed to offer a constructive off-ramp – one that revitalizes multilateral cooperation.

New US tariffs have shaken global trade and triggered sharp swings in financial markets, raising concerns about broader economic fallout. As negotiations continue and uncertainty lingers, three experts explain why tariffs are driving volatility, and what it could mean for the global economy.