How biodiversity loss is threatening the economic future of sub-tropical countries

Over 100,000 different animal species call Brazil home, and yet visitors may leave Brazil thinking it’s home to just one: bos taurus. There are more cows in Brazil than people, with an estimated 234 million cows to 211 million humans. These cows are traditionally bred for meat, and they find their way into burgers and products as far afield as China and the US. Cattle is a critical part of Brazil’s agricultural ambition, but that ambition and growth is putting pressure on some of the world’s most delicate ecosystems.

Brazil has jumped at the opportunity to grow its agricultural production, enabled in part by shifting patterns of global trade (influenced by US/China tariffs and the Russia-Ukraine war). Brazil’s agricultural boom has seen its agricultural sector’s gross production value increase by 11% year on year, while China remains a key market for Brazil, with around one-third of Brazil’s agricultural exports – specifically soy and beef – destined for East Asia.

The demand for these commodities is leading to agricultural expansion in the Cerrado, one of the world’s most biodiverse regions, which in turn puts pressure on critical ecosystems. Worldwide, 90% of tropical deforestation is linked to agriculture, and between 2015 and 2020 the rate of deforestation was estimated to be around 10 million hectares of forest per year – almost half the size of the UK.

In places like the Cerrado, large-scale agricultural expansion destroys ecosystems, threatening countless species, and undermines the delicate balance that sustains local biodiversity. Loss of forests and natural habitats affects more than trees – agricultural expansion also destabilises food systems and, consequently, impacts economies. As the planet’s population grows and trade shifts accelerate, deforestation risks crippling these ecosystems.

However, solutions exist. The Green Value Chain Taskforce, led by the Tropical Forest Alliance (TFA), demonstrates how agricultural commodities can be sourced sustainably, without increasing deforestation. A key part of this strategy is to support both economic development and biodiversity conservation by decoupling agricultural production from forest conversion. The TFA is working to ensure global agricultural trade can be part of the solution rather than amplifying the problem.

One solution is to invest in stronger environmental protections for key biomes like the Cerrado, which could unlock up to $72 billion in economic benefits, while ensuring the survival of its unique biodiversity. Moreover, sustainable intensification of agriculture and the regeneration of degraded lands could add $40 billion to Brazil’s GDP, creating a win-win for both the economy and the environment.

Financial institutions have the influence and tools to steer the global economy toward a nature-positive future. Finance underpins the drivers of biodiversity loss, as the connection between ambition and implementation across supply chains and restoration.

Working in partnership with nature – especially in regions like the Chaco and Cerrado – offers a way to protect biodiversity while providing substantial economic gains. Estimates suggest that nature-positive transitions could unlock over $10 trillion in annual business value and create nearly 395 million jobs by 2030.

However, even as regulatory expectations and transparency demands grow, financial institutions still face barriers to implementation, like incomplete biodiversity data and limited nature-focused assessment tools. Financial models exist, but they’re hampered by a lack of reliable data. With the right information, financial models can build on existing climate-related transition planning and show how nature and climate strategies can be integrated. Fundamentally, the private sector holds the keys to scaling investment but needs greater incentives, more evidence-based data, and public backing.

Financial actors can already start to assess their exposure to nature-related risk through 11 practical indicators outlined in Nature Positive: Corporate Assessment Guide for Financial Institutions – jointly produced by the World Economic Forum and Oliver Wyman – and identify concrete steps to integrate nature considerations into their strategies and decision-making.

Developing a symbiotic and sustainable relationship between agriculture and global business is just part of the solution. Another is forest restoration, which can also offer rural employment and ensure water and food security in addition to enormous ecological and environmental benefits. The economic value of forests has been estimated at $150 trillion, and forests play a critical role in climate regulation by absorbing approximately 2.6 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide annually. Put simply, it’s within our human (and financial) interest to protect, restore and manage them sustainably.

As part of the World Economic Forum’s efforts to accelerate nature-based solutions, 1t.org, is working to change the situation by mobilizing large-scale forest conservation and reforestation through public-private coalitions. Up until now, it has secured pledges from 92 companies and commitments of 9.7 billion trees in 143 countries.

One of the latest stories from Restor, the world's largest platform for nature restoration sites and 1t.org’s partner, introduces us to Jorge Ferreira in their short film Jorge and the Giant Forest, a self-taught ethnobotanist living in Brazil’s Atlantic Forest. He maps local biodiversity, designs and implements agroforestry systems to enrich the soil and enhance the human-nature relationship. After transitioning from conventional farming in his early years, he now guides communities in blending native species, food crops, and forest products, showing how agroforestry can regenerate ecosystems and sustain rural economies.

Indigenous communities manage 80% of the world’s most biodiverse forests but may lack the capital and platforms to successfully manage and lead the sustainable forest transition. Solutions, whether that involves engaging financial institutions or indigenous leaders, require cooperation and partnership. Indigenous people, many of whom have called tropical forests home for generations, have a critical role as stakeholder and rights holder when it comes to conservation and sustainable management of biodiverse areas.

They manage over 38 million square kilometres of land globally, which includes nearly 40% of all protected areas. It’s vital that environmental negotiations move beyond tokenistic involvement to meaningfully integrate their perspective – 1t.org is enabling this by engaging with youth climate leaders from Indigenous communities within its Youth Hub. It fosters collaboration, shared action and learning to help accelerate and finance the global youth-led conservation and restoration movement with Indigenous knowledge and experience.

COP30 must be a turning point, one that mobilises capital, empowers local communities, and accelerates change. It must operationalise the Global Biodiversity Framework by anchoring national targets in financing strategies, integrating nature into economic policies, and ensuring inclusive implementation grounded in Indigenous leadership. Transforming our relationship with nature also requires system-level change, integrating biodiversity into national economic planning, trade policy, and financial regulation.

Governments must embed biodiversity into development and financial strategies, while we must encourage public-private partnerships to thrive – these partnerships are essential to unlocking scalable investment. These changes don’t need to happen from scratch; they can adapt proven climate tools to assess and support nature-related transitions. With better alignment, capital can move faster into business models that regenerate ecosystems and reduce dependency on degrading natural assets. Guided by Indigenous leaders and communities, who hold centuries-old expertise and knowledge when it comes to forest preservation, a nature-positive economy is in reach – if we act now.