The $3 trillion maintenance gap is burning money and the planet

As we enter the Intelligent Age, an era defined by the convergence of advanced hardware and Physical AI, global industrial strategy faces a paradoxical crisis. While the race for new "miracle" technologies dominates C-suite agendas, we are ignoring a massive, self-inflicted wound in our existing infrastructure.

Approximately 25% to 30% of global greenhouse gas emissions are "waste" emissions – the byproduct of badly maintained, defective or outdated equipment and infrastructure. This phenomenon, known as operational friction or the efficiency gap, represents a structural failure to monitor and optimize the assets we already own. The staggering economic damage amounts to an annual loss of global GDP that's between $1 trillion and $3 trillion.

The maintenance gap generates a carbon footprint equivalent to the total annual emissions of China, or the combined footprint of North America and Europe. This waste is not a requirement for our standard of living; it is a failure of operational intelligence.

To achieve meaningful decoupling of economic growth from carbon emissions, multistakeholder leadership must shift its focus.

The transition to a net zero future requires us to pivot from a "disposable" economy focused on "building new" to a circular model of "maintaining better," powered by Industrial AI. This shift toward operational efficiency is so fundamental that the IEA calls energy efficiency "the first fuel", because optimizing existing systems is the most effective route to net zero.

Maintenance failures are not isolated incidents — they are systemic, and data from the IEA, IPCC, UNIDO and the World Economic Forum makes that unmistakably clear.

In energy, fugitive methane emissions from degraded oil and gas infrastructure released 135 million tonnes into the atmosphere in 2022 alone. Given that methane is 80 times more potent than CO₂ over a 20-year horizon, leaking valves and ageing pipelines represent one of the most acute near-term climate risks we face — and 70% of those emissions are reducible with technology that already exists.

Industrial operations compound the picture, with legacy boilers and uninsulated pipes driving 12.4% of global CO₂ emissions. In the built environment, commercial buildings account for 34% of global emissions, with up to a third of that figure representing waste that is entirely preventable with existing tools.

Addressing this calls for a “Maintenance Mandate” – a strategic reorientation that treats asset health as a core pillar of climate and competitiveness strategy.

Three pillars define the action we can take:

The first is to extend asset life through servitization, which means shifting from selling products to delivering performance outcomes that reward longevity over replacement. Jotun, a Norwegian multinational chemicals company and global leader in marine, protective and powder coatings, exemplifies this approach. The company has transitioned from being a coatings supplier to a hull performance provider, using advanced materials and robotic cleaning to reduce vessel drag and fuel consumption. The impact is substantial: these innovations saved an estimated 11.8 million tonnes of CO₂ emissions for vessels coated with its products in 2025 – up from 11.1 million tonnes the year before.

The second pillar is to detect methane leaks by making satellite-based monitoring of super-emitter events standard practice globally. This will create the public accountability needed to drive repair of failing infrastructure at the pace the climate requires. The IEA finds that existing technology could cut energy-sector methane emissions by over two-thirds, with 45% of reductions cost-neutral. Achieving this requires straightforward measures already within reach: installing leak detectors, mandating repairs to damaged infrastructure and banning non-emergency flaring and venting.

The third pillar is to inspect building performance through mandatory energy-grade labelling and digital twin monitoring, targeting the legacy HVAC and boiler systems responsible for the largest concentrations of avoidable emissions in the built environment.

The technology to implement this agenda at scale is maturing rapidly. Physical AI – integrating perception, reasoning and real-world action – is already delivering measurable results. Foxconn's deployment of digital twins and AI-powered robotics achieved a 40% reduction in deployment time, a 25% reduction in error rates, and operational cost savings of 15% – outcomes that point to what systematic application can deliver across industry more broadly.

The transition ultimately hinges on people. The IEA projects 30 million new jobs in clean energy and efficiency by 2030, but filling them will require a deliberate and accelerated shift from the wrench-turner to the digital technician; workers fluent in data interpretation, systems thinking and human-machine collaboration. This is not a distant labour market challenge. It is an immediate organizational one. Companies that treat reskilling as a compliance exercise rather than a strategic investment will find themselves without the human capital to operate the intelligent systems they are deploying.

Amazon's integration of hundreds of thousands of robots across its fulfilment network has generated 30% more skilled roles, not fewer, with structured reskilling pathways enabling wage increases of up to 40% for workers moving into roles that oversee intelligent systems. The organizations that will lead in the Intelligent Age are those that invest in their people's capacity to work alongside machines – and treat that investment with the same strategic seriousness as their technology deployments.

The $3 trillion maintenance gap is a reminder that nearly a third of required global emissions reductions are achievable today – without waiting for unproven technologies.

We call upon industry leaders to adopt the Maintenance Mandate. Strategic leadership in the Intelligent Age is not defined by how much we manufacture, but by how intelligently we maintain and optimize the world we have already built. By closing the efficiency gap, we can simultaneously drive industrial competitiveness and secure a habitable planet.

The transition begins with the mandate to fix what is broken.